湛江市降水日变化特征及一次强降水过程分析

作者：陈兵, 魏仁杰, 张帆, 颜妍, 吴丽晴

单位：广东海洋大学海洋与气象学院, 广东 湛江 524088

关键词：ERA5;百分位阈值;极端降水;日变化

分类号：P426.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·43·第4期(136-147)

摘要：

研究基于ERA5小时降水数据，采用百分位阈值法定义湛江地区2020—2024年极端降水事件，揭示该地区降水和极端降水的变化特征，并探讨一次强降水过程的成因机制。结果表明：湛江地区降水空间分布呈现显著的区域差异性，其中东北部与西南部降水差异最为明显。降水高值中心主要分布于廉江-湛江-吴川三地交界处、湛江市区及西部沿海地区，并呈现由北向南降水递减的空间分布特征。降水频率峰值主要出现在03时和14时左右，午后时段对应日降水量和降水强度最大值。基于6个站点小时降水数据的极端降水分析表明，研究区极端降水事件具有明显的空间异质性，极端强降水区域为徐闻县西部、雷州市沿海和廉江市北部，极端降水区域主要为廉江、湛江和遂溪交界、以及湛江市区和雷州中部等区域。针对湛江市一次强降水个例的分析表明，充足的水汽供应、有利的动力抬升条件和大气层结热力不稳定性的共同作用，导致该次强降水事件的发生。

Based on the ERA5 hourly precipitation dataset, this study uses the percentile threshold method to define the extreme precipitation events in Zhanjiang from 2020 to 2024, and studies the variation of precipitation and extreme precipitation in this region, and explores the formation mechanism of a process of heavy precipitation. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation exhibits significant differences in Zhanjiang, especially in the northeast and southwest parts. Strong precipitation locates in the junction area of Lianjiang-Zhanjiang-Wuchuan, the urban area and the western coast of Zhanjiang showing a spatial distribution that decreases from north to south. The peak frequency of precipitation mainly occurs at 3 a.m. and 2 p.m., with the afternoon peak corresponding to the maximum daily precipitation and the highest precipitation intensity. Analysis of hourly data from six stations indicates significant spatial differences in extreme precipitation across the study area. Areas with the most extreme precipitation are located in the western Xuwen, coastal Leizhou and northern Lianjiang. Extreme precipitation located in the junction area of Lianjiang, Zhanjiang and Suixi, as well as the urban area of Zhanjiang and central Leizhou. An analysis of a heavy precipitation case in Zhanjiang reveals that the combination of abundant water vapor, favorable dynamic lifting, and thermal instability in the atmospheric stratification collectively contributed to its development.

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