台风作用下海上风电场受灾风险评价研究

作者：朱业1, 李宸锐2, 车助镁1, 李婷1, 郭敬1, 沈辉1

单位：1. 浙江省海洋监测预报中心, 浙江 杭州 310007; 2. 河海大学 港口海岸与近海工程学院, 江苏 南京 210098

关键词：海上风电场;台风;风险评价;层次分析法;指标体系

分类号：P444;P425.6+5

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·43·第4期(118-126)

摘要：

基于当前缺乏科学的海上风电场受灾评估方法，且现有的自然灾害风险评估研究很少聚焦单一承灾体，本研究依据海上风电场特点，针对性地构建了包含1个一级指标、3个二级指标、13个三级指标在内的台风作用下单桩基础海上风电场受灾风险评价体系。通过专家调研结合层次分析法确定各指标权重，整合长时序历史台风数据与多座海上风电场工程参数，优化风险量化计算模型与等级划分，提出完整的海上风电场受灾风险评价流程，并成功应用于普陀6号海上风电场，案例显示该风险评价方法效果良好。

China's offshore wind turbine structures are impacted by typhoons that frequently affect coastal waters. At present, there is a lack of scientific assessment methods for evaluating disaster risks in offshore wind farms, making it difficult to estimate potential typhoon-induced losses rapidly and reasonably. Existing researches on natural disaster risk assessment seldom focuses on individual hazard-affected entities, and thus cannot be directly applied to offshore wind farms. To address this gap, this paper develops a tailored risk evaluation system for offshore wind farms, which consists of one primary indicator, three secondary indicators, and thirteen tertiary indicators. Indicator weights are determined based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process combined with expert surveys. A long-term historical typhoon dataset and engineering parameters from multiple offshore wind farms are integrated to support the analysis. The risk quantification model and classification criteria are optimized, leading to a comprehensive risk assessment framework. The proposed methodology is successfully applied to the Putuo No. 6 offshore wind farm, with the case study results verifying its effectiveness.

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