基于IMERG降水产品的台湾海峡非台风暴雨特征及成因分析

作者：高珊1,2,3, 高聪晖1,2,3, 叶韫盛1,2, 林佳怡4, 陈文键1

单位：1. 福建省气象台, 福建 福州 350007; 2. 中国气象局海峡灾害天气重点开放实验室, 福建 福州 350007; 3. 平潭台湾海峡海洋气象福建省野外科学观测研究站, 福建 平潭 350400; 4. 北京师范大学地理科学学部, 北京 100080

关键词：IMERG;非台风暴雨;时空特征;分类合成;低空急流;地形效应

分类号：P426.6

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2026·43·第3期(93-104)

摘要：

利用国际卫星全球降水测量任务（GPM）综合多卫星反演产品（IMERG）填补海上观测资料的不足，应用ERA5再分析资料，统计分析台湾海峡非台风暴雨的时空分布特征，并采用分类合成方法研究其成因。结果表明：2016—2021年台湾海峡海上暴雨日多出现在春季及6月；年均暴雨日数高值区、日极值大值区主要集中在海峡北部和海峡东南部海区。暴雨多发月份的500 hPa天气形势可分为副高边缘西南风型、季风槽东部辐合型两类。合成分析发现，非台风暴雨多发生在高层辐散、低层辐合、冷暖空气交汇等有利形势下，暴雨多发区分布与中小尺度低空急流脉动、海峡地形作用密切相关。研究建立了两个暴雨多发区极端强降水的概念模型，并提炼相应预报着眼点：海峡北部暴雨多发区，与西南急流穿越海峡后受多重地形作用形成的强风急流核相关；海峡东南部暴雨多发区，与西南急流穿越巴士海峡后左侧强辐合及地形抬升作用相关。

Using the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement(IMERG) precipitation products to fill in the gap of marine observations, the ERA5 reanalysis data are used to statistically analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of non-typhoon rainstorms in the Taiwan Strait, and the causes are derived from a classification and synthesis method. It is found that the rainstorms on the sea is the most in spring and June between 2016 and 2021. The areas with frequent annual rainstorm days and maximum daily extreme values are concentrated in the north and southeast of the strait. The 500 hPa situation on multiple monthly rainstorm days can be classified into the southwest wind type on the edge of the subtropical high and the convergence type in the east of the monsoon trough. Synthetic analysis shows that non-typhoon rainstorms occur under the favorable situation of high-level divergence, low-level convergence, cold and warm convergence, etc. Rainstorm prone areas are closely related to small and medium-sized low-level jet fluctuations and strait topography. We obtain conceptual models and forecast focus for two high occurrence areas of extreme heavy precipitation: the high occurrence area in the northern part of the strait and the southwest jet stream crossing the strait, forming a strong wind jet core correlation under various terrain conditions; The frequent occurrence area in the southeastern part of the strait is related to the strong convergence on the left side of the southwest jet stream passing through the Bashi Strait and the uplift in front of the mountains.

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